Saturday, March 14, 2009

Best Indian Stocks for LongTerm Investment

As I mentioned in the last post, I have identified 40 companies which can give promising returns in the long term if we stick with it. In fact one can do more research on this list to construct a well balanced portfolio based on the individual risk potential. If we continue to invest from current price levels irrespective of whether the market goes down or up, there is a strong chance to get above average returns over the 5 year period.

What I have considered while selecting these Stocks?

1. Book Value
2. Current and Past EPS and PE Ratio
3. Debt / Equity Ratio
4. Current Ratio
5. Future Potential(Main reason for Selecting Commodity Stocks)
6. Size of the Company
7. Comparative Advantage or Uniqueness

I have listed the companies group/sector wise and I request the readers to do more research on these stocks to make their own judgement.

1.State Bank of India
2.Larsen &Toubro
3.Hindustan Unilever
7.Bharti Airtel
8.ICICI Bank
9.Tata Steel

Outside Sensex


10.Axis Bank
11.Punjab National Bank
12.Yes Bank or Bank of Baroda


13.Torrent Power
14.CESC Limited


15. Rallis India
16.Chambal Fertilizers
17.Tata Chemicals
18.Gujarat State Fertilizer Corporation
19.Kaveri Seed Company


20.IPCA Laborotaries


22.Mahindra Finance


23.Bhushan Steel
24.Sesa Goa
25.Jindal Steel
26. Indian Hume Pipe Company

Engineering and Infrastructure

27.IVRCL Infrastructure
28.Hindustan Dorr Oliver Limited
29. Supreme Infrastructure
30.Lakshmi Machine Works


31.HCL Technologies
32.Tulip Telecom
33.Geodesic Information Systems(If you believe in VAS)
34.Crompton Greaves 
35.Jindal Photo (Small Cap) or Siemens (Mid Cap)


37.GE Shipping
39.Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone
40.Aditya Birla Nuvo or Clariant Chemicals

Note: I have included Technology Sector for the people who believe in it. Because, I have a feeling that the stocks in this sector can be affected by innovation and new entry very easily than others. But we can have few selected stocks from this sector as it has high growth potential. One might have a feeling that I have left out few good companies. But if we continue to feel like that then we might end up with 100 good companies and never be able to construct a well diversified portfolio.Hence, I tried my best to limit the number of companies to 40.

Tips to Construct a Good Portfolio:

1. Select atleast 7 SENSEX Stocks from this list.
2. Spend 50 percent of your investment in the SENSEX stocks that you have selected.
3. Select 10-15 companies outside of SENSEX from this list or the companies that fit into your scheme of things.

4. Spend another 30 percent in the Large/Midcap stocks you selected.

5. Spend the rest (20 percent) in Small Caps that you selected.

6.Continue investing from current levels irrespective of the Market ups and downs.

7.If the Bull market sets in, then stop investing when the SENSEX gains 75 percent from the current levels (Around 16000). This is for the long term investors only.

8.Do not reconstruct your portfolio unless SATYAM like situation arises for any of your stocks.

9.Never get swayed by any stocks outside of your portfolio once you have selected the best companies after careful research.

10. Just sit and enjoy when the Bull market sets in and book the profit when you reach the desired (Very Important) returns.

Sectors that I am interested in:

2.Power & Energy
4.Engineering & Infrastructure
5.Pharmaceuticals and
6.Commodities(For long term)

Conclusion: I have selected the stocks based on my own intuition and I request the readers to do more research to pick the stocks that best suit individual interests. I have also listed a 10 point rule to construct a well balanced portfolio based on what I am certainly going to do. But individuals can change the rule according to their liking without any major modifications (Only if they are interested to construct a long term portfolio). I sincerely request everyone who read this to share their views about these stocks or other stocks they believe in.

Kumaran Seenivasan.


Ex-service Men March 14, 2009 at 8:54 PM  

Excellent Mr Kumaran. You are doing a great job by helping those confused investors to make a strong portfolio in long term. I am will work. The companies and rules set by you is good enough to follow.

BULLS March 15, 2009 at 1:06 AM  

Nice detailed Article Mr Kumaran. I think you missed one good stock over here which is too good be left out of the mention for long-term investments.

Power Grid

Anyways, it is not possible to recollect all possible stocks while settling in to post an article. Though, valuations are a bit concern for Power Grid as it has acted contrary to market direction (which is down) in the last quarter or so.

Investors can accumulate it starting from Rs.65 or so & more on every larger dips. It is a 'Must Have' stock in any good long only portfolio.

Thank you to Mr Kumaran for a detailed long term list.


jamesvaikom March 15, 2009 at 2:23 AM  

I prefer to buy Bharti Airtel @ 300-400 levels than Reliance Communications. Before buying airtel @ 550 two things to remember are some panic selling may happen in airtel due to recent issues and although the company is making huge profit they have not given any dividend. This stock has not corrected as much as other stocks during this bear market.

You have included both Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Power in the list. I prefer to go with Reliance Infrastructure only.

Cairn and Selan are making profits in difficult environment.

Kumaran March 15, 2009 at 8:41 AM  

Thank You all for your comments.

James, Regarding the Airtel, I have not said that it has to be bought @550. I just said anything less than 550 is OK.But in my view,both Aitel and Rcomm will give good returns in the long term.Airtel is just doing well in the bear market but when the bull market sets in, I think Rcomm will over take in terms of percentage gains.

Regarding Bulls comments,Power Grid is ofcourse a good stock. But as I said, it is difficult to find a place for every stock in our portfolio. In fact BGR Energy is a good stock at current prices but left out due to the fact that this list already contains 40 stocks.Even in this list of 40, one can't go with all 40, right? People have to leave out around 10-15 stocks to construct a good portfolio.Thats the reason, I left out few good stocks. Otherwise,Powergrid is gem of a stock.

Mahesh March 15, 2009 at 11:16 PM  

Excellent Effort Mr. Kumaran.

You, BULLS, Shabu and Faisal doing great job for investors.

Keep up the hard work Guys.

I think its better to invest in concentrated portfolio instead of diverse stocks.

Invest in 2 to 3 best stocks in 3 to 4 best sectors. Here sectors i mean is the company that produces/develop products that ppl can't live without it [aka. non-cyclical].

Correct me if i am wrong, though i am beginner.

Kumaran March 16, 2009 at 6:28 AM  

Mahesh,Thanks for your comments.Concentrated portfolio is good only when you are sure 100 percent about its potential.But in the real scenario no one knows 100 % about the success. Also in my view, if your portfolio contains above 5 stocks, then it becomes a diversified portfolio.Another reason is, sometimes the physical and financial growth of the companies do not translate into good stock price. You might have seen lot of non-cyclical stocks coming down heavyly in this downturn even after posting decent returns.You can invest in FMCG stocks, but the return potential is very limited.If you are satisfied with 10 percent of CAGR, then you can invest in non-cyclical FMCG stocks which will not go down much but will not go up much either.

Ronak March 16, 2009 at 9:52 AM  

In any market, its always good to invest in sectors which have a future growth. The bear market may not be the best time to judge the potential of future stocks as most of the stocks have corrected from their peak level. Pick up the stocks and sectors which have a good long term prospects and are undervalued or near to their book value and start accumulating in quantities. Bear market provides a good opportunity to build a diversified portfolio as most of the stocks can be bought at reasonable valuations.

- Ronak

Mahesh March 17, 2009 at 10:29 AM  

Thanks Kumaran for modifying my thoughts on concentrated portfolio.

SheeL March 29, 2009 at 3:57 AM  

I think VAS is going to be a high growth sector for coming years in IT/Telecom sector due to auction of 3G spectrum...

I am interested in 3 Companies.
(Past 3-Year CAGR Over 100%)
1. OnMobile
2. Tanla Solutions
3. Geodesic

I have analysed these companies but want other to analyse them and give their views about these companies.

The few things i want to know are...

1. What is their business model and products?

2. Do they have regular revenue generating business or product for sustainability?

3. How much they will be gaining from 3G...?

4. Will they be able to maintain their Sales and Profit growth rate in future as their past has been excellent?

5. Valuations...? (PE)
Onmobile - 32X
Tanla - 3X
Geodesic - 5X

Geodesic and Onmobile has been growing consistently apart from Tanla which had slower last quarter result...

Thanks, awaiting you replies...

SheeL May 14, 2009 at 7:04 AM  

Spanco - A multibagger...?

Rs.3750cr order to bagged by Spanco.

Please analyse the below matter and reply...?

Three telecom companies — Spanco Telesystems and Solutions, TVS Interconnect Systems (a TVS group firm) and Acme Tele Power — have emerged as the front-runners for state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd’s (BSNL) Rs 30,000-crore infrastructure contract. Besides, network services major GTL and power company KEC are in the second and third positions, enabling them to get 25 per cent of the total contract.

“Spanco was the lowest bidder for the west zone, TVS for south, Acme Tele Power for north and east for the passive cellular infrastructure (tower) contract. The telecom ministry has called for a meeting of the L1 players tomorrow, and a final decision on this will come out in a couple of days,” a source close to development said.

BSNL would be spending around Rs 7,500 crore per zone, resulting in a Rs 30,000 crore outlay for all the four zones. This means that in case Spanco and TVS win the bid they would get contract worth Rs 7,500 crore, and Acme Tele Power Rs 15,000 crore of business.

The contract is towards building and maintenance of passive cellular infrastructure including towers, shelters, diesel generators, air-conditioning and associated services, the source added.

When contacted, Spanco Systems Deputy Managing Director Deepak Bhagchandaney confirmed the development and said the company was in final laps of bagging the contract.

“BSNL is a strategic account and apart from bidding for passive infrastructure, we have also put in our bid for the information technology part (billing and software solutions). We are bidding for the north and east zones in IT,” said Bhagchandaney.

TVS Interconnect and Acme Tele Power could not be immediately contacted for comments.

Meanwhile, GTL has emerged as the second lowest bidder (L2) in west and north zones, and the third lowest (L3) in the east zone. KEC is believed to be L2 in the west zone.

Under the BSNL contract, 50 per cent of the total contract will be awarded to L1, while the remaining 50 per cent would be spilt between L2 and L3 bidders. GTL is estimated to get around Rs 5,500 crore worth of business.

As per reports, the BSNL deal will be finalised 'within a month' and as per the BSNL's tender norms, Spanco will get at least Rs 3,750 crore worth of contract for being the lowest bidder with the rest going to the second- and third-lowest bidders.

Report sugests that the second-lowest bidder for the contract is Mumbai-based GTL, which was trading 0.15% higher at Rs 263.30 on the BSE.

Under the contract, Spanco will implement and maintain towers, generator sets, power plants, shelters, in-building solutions, electric cablings for BSNL's west zone for seven years.

Of the Rs 3,750 crore, the firm would get about Rs 500 crore for implementation of telecom equipment in the initial two years, while maintenance will fetch the firm Rs 1,200 crore for seven years. The telecom solutions provider will earn the rest of Rs 2,000 crore for procuring and supplying equipment.

Besides telecom-related contracts, Spanco is also reportedly looking for a share of the Rs 6,000 crore IT contract. It is bidding for the west and north zone tenders for IT requirement of BSNL.

Today in an interview on CNBC TV18, the company Director said Rs.1000cr rev will come in this year from this order, with EBIDTA margins around 12-13%

Anonymous,  August 2, 2009 at 11:05 AM  

Could you please give your comments on 'Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd' which is a public sector power generating company having expansinon projects in hand and a miniratna profitable PSU. This company is in Govt disinvestment list.Thx
- Wizkid

Kumaran August 2, 2009 at 11:56 AM  

Hi Wizkid,

Neyveli Lignite Corporation is a good bet if you can wait for 3-5 yrs(If you buy at the current levels). Because, the valuation is already high and any appreciation beyond this should be driven by a definite bull market.All I can say is "not a bad stock" to invest.


Anonymous,  August 5, 2009 at 2:08 PM  


Excellent Stuff..

Can you advice about Satyam Computer., is it advisable to invest now on this share


Kumaran August 5, 2009 at 6:55 PM  


You can invest in Satyam if you have the adequate risk taking ability. But why do you want to invest in Satyam when there are good companies available at a decent price?


Krishna,  September 4, 2009 at 9:25 AM  

Hi Kumaran,

I have read all your posts and the quality of details is excellent..Thank you

Pl can you give your comment in NHPC at this level will be a good to buy..


Kumaran September 4, 2009 at 5:13 PM  

Hi Krishna,

I am not that bullish in NHPC. I think you can go with Reliance Power instead. Because, the valuation is high as of now and it will take sometime to reach EPS of at least Rs.4-5. Hence, I would either go with NTPC or Reliance Power.


Krishna,  September 5, 2009 at 1:30 AM  

Thank you Kumaran for your advice..

Best Regards

Krishna,  September 6, 2009 at 1:25 AM  

Hi Kumaran

I am thinking to invest in Anu's Lab , which has corrected 50% after split and bonus . Could you please provide your comment on this stock, as I do not see any fundamental reason's any as why this stock is discounted so much.

Thank you

Vishrut October 8, 2009 at 9:42 PM  

Hi Kumaran,

You have done excellent work. I just want to add that you might miss FMCG sector. Stocks like Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, Tata Tea, Marico etc are nice stock even.

I request you to advice on high yield stocks.


Frank,  October 8, 2009 at 9:46 PM  

Hi Kumaran,

You have done excellent work. I just want to add that you might miss FMCG sector. Stocks like Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, Tata Tea, Marico etc are nice stock even.

I request you to advice on high yield stocks.


Anonymous,  October 22, 2009 at 4:04 AM  

Mr. Kumaran,
Was surfing for good stock analyses and found your article. Excellent. Am a newbie and this is good learning. Would you please give your opinion on holding long-term stocks like compact disc and hind dorr-oliver at current valuations?

Kumaran October 22, 2009 at 8:17 AM  

Mr.Anonymous (!!!),

Thanks for your comments. If you are planning to hold these stocks for another 5 years, then you can get good returns even if you buy now. But try to buy on dips.


Anonymous,  November 8, 2009 at 9:36 AM  

Hey Kumaran,,

Fantastic for sharing your knowledge
I am a first time investor

And the article what i read was throughly what i was looking for.

Ashish Bhatt,  December 3, 2009 at 3:19 AM  

Hello Kumaran,

Dear I really impressed with sharing your view on diff aspects of market.
I would like to have invest in stock which can give us 100% 200% return. sounds funny. But I would like to ask you can we invest in Jindal group?
I have currently invested in Jindal Steel & power @ 700 for one year target.
Which one is good ? Jindal Saw? Jindal Cotex? JSW holding?

Please give us your valuable view.

Aashish Bhatt

Kumaran December 4, 2009 at 9:24 AM  


Jindal Steel & Power, JSW Steel, Jindal SAW and Jindal South West Holdings are very good companies. But Among them I would JSW Steel and Jindal Steel 7 Power.


Anonymous,  January 12, 2010 at 12:24 PM  

hello mr kumaran
i have gone through your blog and i really like your stock picks .i have 1000 reliance power stocks at 142 i am ready to hold it for 4 to 5 years can you suggest the expected return i can expect

Rajeev Kumar,  March 14, 2010 at 11:18 AM  

Dear Mr. Kumaran,

Pl accept my sincere thanks for the wonderful and beneficial commetns on share trading. I am a retail investor and after reading your guidelines I got confused and strongly feel that I should reconstruct my portfolio. My portfolio is given below:


Sir, could you please advise me which are the shares I should hold and which ones I should sell in terms of long term investment.

Thank you in advance,


Kumaran March 14, 2010 at 9:17 PM  


You have many stocks that I never looked in detail. On the outset, I would hold only JP Associates, ICICI Bank and Reliance Power. Decision regarding all other stocks depends on at what price you bought it.


ajit April 19, 2010 at 4:41 PM  

HI All,
Can any one advise me a good stock for long term investment??? rang rs.3-15 A good return after 2-3 years????
contact me

Rajesh April 23, 2010 at 8:36 AM  

dear Mr.Kumaran,
i just read thru your article,it was gem of an advise, which i failed to find in the internet.
and now i got one ..thanks for that.
i have a query to you, if i wanted to invest at the current levels the stocks what u have mentioned is still good to buy and accumalate for a 3 to 5 years long term invetsment.
please advise .

Anonymous,  May 8, 2010 at 6:41 AM  

Hi Mr Kumar,
I read your blog nearly every day, but long time no updates from you. Am just going to start investing in shares as I have gained intrest in them only after reading your blog. Have applied for a Demat account last month, may be in a week or so should be opened. Can you suggest me some good stocks where I can invest around one and half lakhs Rs. I mean as a Initial investor, the stocks that make a good portfolio for me on a long term basis like 2-3 yrs

Plumeria..All about fragerance in life! May 19, 2010 at 4:04 AM  

Thanks for such a nice article. It helps especially a new person like me. I have a little query and I cannt take a decision.
I bought Satyam at 100.2 and now its trading 84. Some of my friends suggested to keep the stock as satyam is going to merge with the mahindra. As long as it was trading above 95 I had no worries. But now confused with the current position.
What should I do in this situation?
Shall i hold the stock for long term ..or leave it as it goes aroung 90?

Anonymous,  May 19, 2010 at 4:10 AM  

Nice post. It was quite helpful. Actually I need some opinion of you. I bought Satyam stock at 100.4 and now its trading 84 :(. Some of my friends suggested to keep the stock as it is going to merge with mahindra; but im worried now.
should i keep the stock for long term ..or sell it as it reach aroung 90 something ?

Kumaran May 19, 2010 at 6:05 PM  

Hi Shweta,

If you do not need money, you can hold and sell it when it reaches your cost price. But Satyam is not a great stock though.


imran khan,  May 25, 2010 at 10:46 AM  

Dear Mr. Kumaran:

I have 150 Aban at Rs. 750. Where do u think is Aban going in 2 years' time?

sachin May 28, 2010 at 3:19 AM  

hi sir,

i would like to invest for a long term say for 6 motnhs - one year or more. can you suggest me some stocks with low price. I cant invest huge amount.

Salil Dhawan June 9, 2010 at 2:58 PM  

What you think of Airtel now?I bought 125@340 odd and now sitting on 20% loss.I can wait for year or two though....


sunder July 5, 2010 at 6:54 AM  

Hello Mr. Kumar...

Let me compliment you for the stock listing you have give.I checked most of the stocks for their growth since the time you wrote the blog...most of them have gone up. I have the following 2 questions:

1) Since I came across the blog only now dose the list still stand good at the present levels.

2)I have a portfolio of Mutual Funds which has given a return of 13% over a period 3-4 years...dose it make good investment sense to move part of the portfolio into shares?? I am a long term investor...i will keep investments for 10 years.


sunder July 5, 2010 at 6:54 AM  

Hello Mr. Kumar...

Let me compliment you for the stock listing you have give.I checked most of the stocks for their growth since the time you wrote the blog...most of them have gone up. I have the following 2 questions:

1) Since I came across the blog only now dose the list still stand good at the present levels.

2)I have a portfolio of Mutual Funds which has given a return of 13% over a period 3-4 years...dose it make good investment sense to move part of the portfolio into shares?? I am a long term investor...i will keep investments for 10 years.


Anonymous August 29, 2010 at 10:44 PM  

Dear Kumar,
Thanks for your excellent work on stock market investing.Your selection of stocks is still to be followed.In my view equity SIP may be considered for long term goverment.

Subachana,  September 19, 2010 at 1:13 PM  

Dear Kumaran.
Please post next set of stocks for further long term investment because at this stage of market condition I am confused and unable to take just decision.

Mohan,  October 2, 2010 at 2:26 AM  

Hi Sir,

Stocks you have identified for long term investment were really good. But, I came across this website just few days back and missed investing in some of these stocks. For the benefit of small investores, could you please let us know about some stocks for long term investments related to areas like Nanotechnology,Cloud computing,agriculture and beverages and any other sectors with tremendous potential. You website is benefitting many as can be seen by the comments posted by others. May god bless you and help you in fulfilling your wishes/dreams

Anonymous,  February 9, 2011 at 12:40 AM  

Dear Sir,

How about the long term prospects of advanta india ltd. and CPIL share. i have already invested and willing to ait for 4-5 years.

options trading March 22, 2011 at 7:17 AM  

I like your article and it really gives an outstanding idea that is very helpful for all the people on the web
options trading

kallget April 11, 2011 at 6:45 AM  

Excellent advice Mr. Kumaran. I am a new investor without much knolwdge of stocks & trading. I am following every step suggested by you.I have incurred loss in some good scrips, How long should I hold stocks if they are not yielding any profit at all, so that I could sell them & buy better ones?
I'm interested in short term selling.

share market May 10, 2011 at 10:59 PM  

Very efficiently written post. It will be valuable to everyone who uses it, as well as myself. Keep doing what you are doing – looking forward to more posts.
share market

cottasofia May 20, 2011 at 5:10 AM  

Nice article. This article will helping to confused investors to make a strong portfolio in long term. Great work.

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Anonymous,  June 6, 2011 at 8:58 AM  

Sir,ur view on satyam,titagarh wagons,jindal saw,Ril,innoventive industries,future ventures,fsl.Im holding these 7 stocks.I also want to invest in sbi and bajaj auto.Kindly advice.Thanks in advance.

Anonymous,  August 10, 2011 at 1:34 PM  

Dear Kumar,
I saw your post and i found excellent all post which i have read till now.This post you posted in 2010 regarding that time condition and scenario can you check the ADAG group companies why should investor believe on this group fro log term.I think a flag ship company RCOM is in trouble and several legal issues is going on.Please give your opinion regarding this.what you are watching the future of Suzlon energy.Thanks for your good article.


Divya August 25, 2011 at 1:50 AM  

hello kumaran,

i m divya. my dada want to buy low price share for long term lik for 5 to 6 yrs. can v buy ksoil @11 n shreeashtvinayak @4.50 . like 15000 he can spend on dis both scrits. plz suggest us what to do is der any scope in that script..

divya December 3, 2011 at 5:37 AM  

Hi Kumaran

Any one can suggest me my portfolio, My investment is 5Lac(spilting in percentage) for 8 to 10years target

10%= TCS below 950, Tgt 3500
10%= HDFC below 420, tgt 1800
10%= ONGC below 230, tgt 1000
10%= ITC below 180, Tgt 800
10%= HINDZINC 110, Tgt 400
10%= NMDC 160, Tgt 600
if not possible to catch then some optional divi's lab, sun pharma, colgate...

5%= PTC 45, Tgt 200
5%= canarabank 400, Tgt 1800
5%= Marico 130, Tgt 800
5%= JKLAKCEMT 35,200
5%= Gujarat NGE coke 15, Tgt 100
5%= TITAN 160, Tgt 800
5%= Exide 100, Tgt 500
5%= Berger Paint 80, Tgt 500

some risty stocks but not more than 2% investment if above stock miss to catch
renuka, skumarnat, Aloktext, Timken, Lanco infr, delta, educom, tube investment, rolta...

aa February 9, 2012 at 2:38 PM  

Dear Kumaran,
i am planning to invest 1 L in the stock market for the coming 15 days. 30% i would like to invest in short term and 70% in long term. Please guide me how to invest in more profitable way in long run (2-3yrs.)and short run below 6months.


Eskeyen March 6, 2012 at 6:06 AM  

I have UCO BANK and IRB share of 100 unit each ..what returns we can expect if I hold it for long term.IRB i purchased on BTST basis.UCO bank on cash basis.


Paul June 13, 2012 at 4:49 AM  

thanks for this post. This post makes a great point about focusing your efforts.

stock tips,equity tips,stock market india

Stock Tips September 5, 2012 at 1:12 AM  

I really appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thanks again.

Agro October 12, 2012 at 2:45 AM  


Im a new investor. Can i invest in WIPRO stocks at current levels. Thanks for advice. Kiran babu

Gobi Nath November 26, 2012 at 6:42 AM  

Hellow Sir.,
i read over the quary and as well as your proper response.
as i watch the share market for the past 6 months and now i interested to invest long term basis (8 to 10yrs) and i searching the stock which is below the face value and perform better in future, could u suggest me that type of stock?



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