Friday, September 4, 2009 Performance Review

I started writing this blog in February, 2009 and have already posted 35 articles. I just wanted to review few of those where I have predicted few significant developments that were to occur after that. In the meantime, the blog has attracted 125 readers which encourages me to keep writing. After all you need someone to read your articles else my time and energy would be a waste.

Significant Predictions

1. “Stock Markets and Business Cycles” on March 1, 2009.

In that article, I discussed about business cycles and its association with stocks markets and tried to predict when the recession would end. If you read the conclusion, I have clearly indicated that bottom would be formed by June, 2009 and it turned out to be that way. Markets bottomed out in March and by June we made sure that there was no retesting of lows.

I also indicated that economy might improve by first quarter of 2010 and again at this point of time, I think it is a reasonable prediction. It’s true that stock market has bounced back, but that does not mean economy has improved. World Economy is still struggling and it will take another 6 months to give some sort of definite relief.

2. “My Portfolio and Historical Perspective” on March 11, 2009

I have listed my portfolio of stocks which I had at that time and also included two historical graphs indicating that my portfolio would recover soon. I am delighted to inform you that my portfolio has not only recovered but also has given 26% overall returns. This is a significant thing considering that I started investing when the SENSEX came down to 18000 levels from 21000 levels.

3. “Best Indian Stocks for Long Term Investment” on March 14, 2009

Stock prices were so cheap that I was so confident back in March second week that market has bottomed out. I immediately posted the above named article with a list of stocks for long term investment and I do not need to tell you the rest. You can best understand the impact of that article if you calculate the returns for all those stocks I have mentioned.

4. “Best Small Cap Stocks – India 2009” on March 18, 2009

On March 18, 2009 I again came up with another list of stocks where I have included only small cap stocks and as I said earlier, most of the stocks I had mentioned then are multibaggers now.

5. “Best Stocks – Aggressive Investors” on May 21, 2009

I posted the above article on May 21, 2009 with list of aggressive stocks and who ever invested in those stocks might have become rich by now.

6. “Best Stocks – Defensive Investors” on May 30, 2009

This list of defensive stocks was posted on May 30, 2009 and those who did not invest in March had another chance to invest at least in May, 2009. Again almost all the stocks have given impressive returns.

Significant Failure

1. "Strategies – Recent Rally and General Elections" on May 2, 2009

I posted this article on May 2, 2009 in which I discussed about general election and I believed that government formation would be difficult. I thought that no one would have majority to form the government and I was wrong. Election results came as a surprise to everyone including our PM Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi. Apart from this, I think I have done a reasonable job in terms of market prediction and stock selection.

Please share your views in the comments section.

Kumaran Seenivasan


roshanpm September 5, 2009 at 5:46 AM  

Sir -

You are doing a great job, I constantly look your blog for new articles. All of them are really useful for me. Keep up the good work.


Rex,  September 6, 2009 at 8:33 AM  

Hi Kumaran,

All the articles published by you so far have made sense. I read them from time to time & have also checked your stock selection & many of them are on my radar now.
Just want to tell you to keep up the good (hard) work. Many of us out there need guys of your intelligence & calibre to help with us select a good portfolio.
Have a pleasant day.

Faisal Humayun September 6, 2009 at 12:54 PM  

Hi Kumaran,

I am an analyst myself and I must admid that your post are really amazing and very understandable to even a layman (which is a sign of a person who really knows things).

I sincearly hope that your blog becomes a great success in the years to comes...

All the best..:).

Kumaran September 6, 2009 at 9:41 PM  

Thank You all for the Generous Comments !

- Kumaran.

sajushiby September 7, 2009 at 8:40 AM  

Dear Kumaran
Your articles are always very analytical. Whenever I see a new article I never miss them. Thanks for sharing your views which are very valuable to us.
with regards

Shabu's September 7, 2009 at 11:35 AM  

Dear Kumaran,

Your professional approach to the market is always outstanding. Keep the good work...


Vibhav September 8, 2009 at 1:39 PM  

Dear Kumaran,

I really appreciate your approach to explain the terminology and the analysis related to stock market.

If possible, can you throw some light on GOLD ETF? How important Gold ETF are in diversifying portfolio? Can we consider the investment in GOLD ETF for long term like 10yrs or so?


Yashwant October 23, 2009 at 10:01 PM  

Hello Kumaran

Keep it up. Your posted article is awasome.


Ravi Kumar November 13, 2009 at 12:22 AM  

Review of reports is very impressive. I hope your blog will give immense support to stock investors. Keep it up

naveen kumar,  November 14, 2009 at 2:47 AM  

can you please explain me about the terms & symbols in the bussiness cycle diagram


This is a blog about stock market investments, investment strategies, and related topics. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of concerned authors opinion, and in no case should it be interpreted as an investment advice to buy stocks, sell stocks, or for that matter advice for any other issues be it money related or not. By using this blog you agree to (i) not take any investment decision, or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) verify any information mentioned here, independently from your own reliable sources (for e.g. a registered investment advisor) and thereby check for possible inaccuracies. This blog is to create investment wisdom among general population and the authors are not responsible for
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